Friday, October 15, 2010

Bias and Spite: Mike F's football picks

Yes - you're right. There are a million sportswriters/sports personalities out there giving their weekly picks. So why on Earth should I pay any attention to this one - especially when it's starting in week six? Quite frankly, I can't think of a good reason. I'm quite used to writing blog entries that nobody reads, so a few more times won't kill me.

What makes my perspective different? Probably nothing. I can tell you though, that I will not hesitate to show my bias toward my favorite team - and I will not hesitate to use unrealistic and unsubstantiated personal vendetta-type language to underscore my picks. I also may decide not to talk about a particular game or games, simply because I can't be bothered to muster up the interest.

I'm guessing it won't take long to figure out what team I favor. Here's a hint - I hate the following teams: Cleveland, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Tennessee. Still not sure? I also hate Dallas, San Francisco, Oakland, Denver and New England. I'm pretty much indifferent to the rest of the NFL.

It's probably best to refrain from trying to figure out the logic behind most of these likes/dislikes. There are some twisted reasons in some cases, and some totally illogical thought behind others. At any rate, I think you might find it entertaining to see what nutty thing I have to say about a given team/game.

Wendy, shall we begin? And yes - I will probably be using lots of obscure quotes and references (like the one at the beginning of this paragraph) in each and every article. Extra points to you if you can figure out the source.

Seattle at Chicago

Ho hum. This one should be pretty boring - I have no real opinion about either team. I do think that Seattle is overrated (and I think this every year), and that Chicago will eventually wind up faltering at the end of the season no matter how they start. I'd expect a relatively low scoring affair, maybe 20-17 or something like that. Unless Jay Cutler decides to throw four touchdown passes or four interceptions. Either way, I'll be happy to spend my time Sunday afternoon watching/doing something else.
What? You want to know who I think will win? Let's assume Chicago, unless Seattle has another team play the game for them.

Miami at Green Bay

So Green Bay is 3-2, eh? So much for ESPN and their opinion that GB was going to be a force this year. More often than not, you can count on any team/player that ESPN gets heavily behind to not live up to expectations. Even if those inflated expectations are the property of ESPN only. Without the wildcat, Miami is about as exciting as ... reading this article?
What? You want to know who I think will win? Let's assume Miami. GB has issues (and I can't be bothered to look them up. They have issues - leave it at that).

Kansas City at Houston

Not much to say here except that I am stunned that KC is anywhere near being the best team (according to record) in the NFL. This is a sad state of affairs. Rest of NFL, you should be embarrased. Houston is tough to root against, considering they've pretty much sucked since their inception. I suppose I'd root for Houston in this game, but, honestly, neither team will matter come December.
What? You want to know who I think will win? Let's assume Houston, as I think KC is a total fraud.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Now we're talking. The Mistake By The Lake against the greatest team in the history of the NFL. Should be a no-brainer, right? Ben Roethlisberger is back, and ESPN would have you believe that everybody is amazed that the Steelers went 3-1 without him. Clearly, they didn't check with any Steelers fans, because all the Steelers fans I talked to felt the Steelers would go 4-0 and can't believe they lost to pissant pretenders like Baltimore. The Browns look like they're all set to fall behind early and watch as the Steelers rack up 101 unanswered points. This is a divisional game and the Steelers tend to play down to the level of their opponent. Don't be surprised if the game is close, or if the Steelers lose. They shouldn't lose - they should kick the snot out of the Browns, but that never happens.
What? You want to know who I think will win? Let's assume the Steelers, of course! It will probably be close, but come on!

San Diego at St. Louis, Detroit at N.Y. Giants

Why even bother? Does anyone really care?
What? You want to know who I think will win? Let's assume St. Louis and The Giants.

Baltimore at New England

Baltimore should never have beaten the Steelers. I will be rooting for New England to come out and rip the Ravens a couple new ones. This is just the kind of thing that Bill Belichick loves. A cocky team that believes the hype. Expect Baltimore's suddenly dynamic offense to become pedestrian and expect Tom Brady to prove that he's more than capable of winning without Randy Moss.
What? You want to know who I think will win? Let's assume that New England will win, and that we'll be able to hear Belichick bore us at game's end telling us that the offense and defense did some good things, they learned a lot about their team and that there's still plenty of areas in which the Patriots can improve.

Atlanta at Philadelphia

I keep hearing how great Atlanta is, but they struggled against the Roethlisberger-less Steelers. They're 4-1, but, honestly - it's a pretty weak four wins. Also suspect Arizona, winless San Francisco and hapless Cleveland? Even their 'legit' win came against a reeling New Orleans team. Eagles - hear me now, believe me later. You should win this game going away, and you should simply accept that - long term - Kevin Kolb should be your quarterback. Mike Vick is not the answer. Trade him now and get what you can for him.
What? You want to know who I think will win? Let's assume the Eagles will 'doggedly' prove they are the better team.

Okay, that's enough for now - seriously, I have other things that I should be doing. Really! The only other game worth mentioning at this point is the Dallas at Minnesota game. Both teams are a snoozy 1-3 (nyahh nyahh), both teams are looking for that elusive winning formula to push them in the right direction. No matter which team wins, not much will change. They will both still stink.
What? You want to know who I think will win? Let's assume Minnesota will win, unless Randy Moss retires before game time.

All right, that wraps it up. Thanks for not reading this article. It's been great fun sharing my vast football expertise with nobody. Tune in next week for another edition (maybe - we'll see).

This weekend, I'll also be rooting for the Phillies to win and for the Yankees to lose. Nothing personal - I just hate the Yankees with a passion.

3 comments:

The J Kane said...

Not bad. However, I would like to see a little more quantitiative analysis and a little less qualititave. For example: PITT vs CLEV: Should I have taken CLEV with the 14 points? Y/N? I'm thinking you would say yes, take the points, but PITT will (should) win outright.

And the G.B. 3-2 start? Next to CHI it's best record of the "NFC NORRIS" division. PHL is 3-2, too - and so is everyone in the NFC EAST (except for DALLAST, 1-3). You are quick to dismiss a 3-2record as mediocre, but yet you call KC @ 3-1 "Fraudulent". I grant you that KC's record seems to be better than their performance, but I think it is safe to say that those "dismal" 3-2 records in the NFC discount how good some of them really are. Leaders WILL emerge, and "proper pricing" will return to the "football market."

As an Eagles Fan who has to deal with the latest rounnd of distractions regarding the QUARTERBACK-IDENTITY-CRISIS, I cannot help but enjoy knowing that Dallas (1-3) is fighting for their Playoff life today against the Vikings (1-3), who are doing the same. Schadenfreude! Gesundheit!

Mike Frangione said...

I never intended for this to be viewed as advice to be used for how to bet on football games. That said, if I had bothered to mention it, I would have advised taking Cleveland and the 14 points. Now aren't you glad that I don't advise folks on how to bet on football games?

Re: "3-2 record as mediocre" - GB lost, WAS lost, the Giants barely got past the Lions, CHI lost to a very ordinary Seattle team and the Eagles are a legit team (as long as they go with Kolb. If they go with Vick - nothing is certain). I maintain that KC is a fraud - they started with a 3-game winning streak...now they have a 2-game losing streak. There's plenty of mediocrity in the teams we're talking about - and let's add Atlanta to this list, despite what ESPN will tell us. Is there an impressive team in the NFC? So far, the Kolb-led Eagles are looking like the best team.

I, too, am enjoying Dallas's struggles. But I maintain that the Vikes are still pretty lame-o despite the win. This looks like it will turn out to be a game of "who's the better 6-10 team?" And that won't just be a two-team race...

Mike Frangione said...

And not to toot my own horn, but I was 8-1 on the picks. Not bad for having a lack of quantitiative analysis. Maybe giving it very little actual thought and going with a gut reaction is the way to appraoch this.