Mile High Surprise: Mike Shanahan Out In Denver

Mike Shanahan is out as the coach of the Denver Broncos. Wow. That was unexpected. I looked around the league and made a mental list of the coaches I expected to get fired. Rod Marinelli. Romeo Crennel. Tom Cable. Wade Phillips. Herman Edwards. Two names I did not expect to see were Eric Mangini and Mike Shanahan.

Not so much Mangini, as I had heard the chatter about him and a firing, especially as the Jets flamed out once again this season.

I was all set to write up a little piece about how I think that teams are frequently too hasty in making coaching changes. How these changes are often within three or four years of the coaches tenure, and how this is not enough time to properly evaluate a coach. After all, it took Chuck Noll six seasons to win his first Super Bowl. For Bill Parcells, it was four seasons. For Bill Walsh, it was three seasons. Ditto for Vince Lombardi.

Then there are coaches like Bill Cowher, who won his Super Bowl in his 14th season. And then there are coaches like Marty Schottenheimer, Dan Reeves, Chuck Knox and Bud Grant, who all won more than 150 games, but never won a Super Bowl. Reeves and Grant account for six Super Bowl losses.

The point, if you're still reading, is that these coaches all had one thing going for them. Consistency and continuity. There were good years, and there were down years. Even Cowher, the coaching candidate du jour, had three losing seasons in 1998, 1999 and 2000. Some owners would have fired Cowher after that third losing season. And then what? No Super Bowl win five years later.

I'm not arguing that Crennel, Marinelli and Mangini didn't contribute to their own downfall by fielding middling to outright crappy teams. But I am saying that given the length/status of player contracts, and owner preferences, a coach could come in and be stuck with some players that he doesn't want. It was pretty well established that Parcells didn't want anything to do with Terrell Owens, but he had to deal with TO in order to coach the Cowboys. It's interesting to note that the Cowboys have gone downhill since Parcells left. Coincidence? Probably. It's too bad TO wasn't cut loose instead. I'd wonder if we'd be seeing Dallas collapses like we've seen these past couple of years.

I think it's something of a disservice to the fans and players to fire a coach after three seasons. Noll's first three seasons: 1-13, 5-9 and 6-8. Today, he might have been fired mid season. Tom Landry started out 0-11-1, 4-9-1, 5-8-1, 4-10, 5-8-1 and 7-7 (I guess he knew there were ties in the NFL, huh?). I think he may not have lasted through that second season in today's NFL. Even Jimmy Johnson had some tough times: 1-15, 7-9 and 11-5. Not so bad in year three, but I'll bet those first two are forgettable for Cowboy fans.

Not every coach starts out a winner like Cowher (11-5, 9-7 and 12-4), Lombardi (7-5, 8-4 and 11-3) and Don Shula (8-6, 12-2 and 10-3). As often as a coach has a brilliant run his first three seasons, a coach will have a totally wretched run in his first three.

What coaches would you rather have coaching your team? Noll, Landry and Johnson? Or Cowher, Lombardi and Shula? Hard to argue with either list, right? That's a lot of Super Bowls right there. And they all got there in different time frames.

And then there's Mike Shanahan. He coached 14 seasons, and won his first of two Super Bowls in his fifth season - his third with Denver. His teams won 10 or more games seven times, and his teams finished first or second 11 times. You'd think after 14 years, 146 wins and two Super Bowl wins, he'd have been safe. Obviously not.

Don't get me wrong. I can't stand Denver, and I am glad to see Shanahan and his arrogance taken down a peg. But, to me, it doesn't add up.

Somehow, Norv Turner, Herman Edwards, Dick Jauron, Mike McCarthy and John Gruden are still coaching. And Andy Reid is under fire in Philadelphia. Tom Coughlin was nearly run out of New York last year. I've heard Marvin Lewis and Jack Del Rio's names come up in the "will he be fired" guessing game. It's nuts.

Meanwhile, Jeff Fisher in Tennessee, looms large these days. His team lost the Super Bowl in his sixth season. In 15 seasons, he's had six seasons of 10 or more wins, four 8-8 seasons and two 7-9 seasons. His overall record is 128-102 for a .557 percentage. Nothing special here, right? But he's having a great year isn't he?

By comparison, Cowher had a .623 winning percentage, Walsh had a .609 winning percentage, Bud Grant had a .622 percentage and Schottenheimer had a .612 percentage.

Parcells (.570), Noll (.566) and Fisher all have lower win percentages than Shanahan (.598).

I find it hard to believe that Shanahan will not be coaching again in 2009, assuming he wants that. Maybe he'll follow Cowher's lead and take some time off.

So what's the answer? I'll be damned if I know. But I do think that all coaches should be given at least five years to determine whether or not they can make a team a viable contender. I just don't think that three years is anywhere near enough time.

Oh - and I also must give props to the 49ers. I am no fan of theirs by any stretch, but their decision to retain Mike Singletary draws applause from me. This has to be one of - if not THE - smartest coaching moves in many years. I look forward to seeing what happens with this team next year. Good one, San Francisco!

Rant of the Week: NFL Playoff Seeding

How screwed up is the NFL when a 9-7 team (Arizona) is hosting an 11-5 team (Atlanta), and an 8-8 team (San Diego) is hosting a 12-4 team (Indianapolis)? And even though Miami and Baltimore have identical records, Baltimore technically finished ahead of Miami because they beat them head-to-head, so that makes three of the four road teams this weekend with better records than their home opponents. And if the Eagles hadn't blown the Washington game, all four road teams would have had better records than their home counterparts. I'd be surprised if that even happened twice in one playoff week before this season.

It's a consequence of the eight-division alignment the NFL now employs: you get a weak 8-8 division winner like San Diego hosting a playoff game while New England at 11-5 is sitting home (not that I feel sorry for Belechick). I know such occurrences happened occasionally in the old six-division alignment, but that problem was largely resolved when they added a third wildcard to each conference. Things were running pretty smoothly from that point on until they decided to realign into eight divisions. Unfortunately, the NFL has backed itself into a corner. They can't add more playoff teams (that would just dilute the quality and turn the NFL into the NHL), and they'll never return to a six-division alignment, so it will probably become fairly common to see teams with double-digit wins sitting at home for the playoffs while 8-8 teams move on. We may even one day see the unthinkable scenario of a 7-9 team hosting a playoff game against a 13-3 team--it could happen, and that would be a major embarassment for the league.

At the very least, the NFL should rethink giving automatic higher seeds to division winners, because there's no way that San Diego and Arizona deserve to host playoff games.

Sometimes the Long Shot Comes In

Who would have thought we'd be sitting here on Monday talking about the Eagles' upcoming playoff game? Nobody. Who in their right mind thought Tampa would lose at home to a lousy team like Oakland, blowing a ten-point lead in the process? Nobody. Who thought the Eagles would put a spanking on the Cowboys the likes of which have rarely been seen in Eagles history? Nobody. The Bears losing in Houston wasn't terribly surprising, but the chances of both Chicago and Tampa losing were pretty small. In fact, you probably had a better chance of winning the lottery than witnessing the confluence of events that occurred yesterday to allow the Eagles to sneak into the playoffs. Then again, it's been that kind of wacky season (the Chargers rallied from a 4-8 record to win their division for god's sake).

I'm not surprised the Eagles beat the Cowboys (though, in my understandable dejection after the Washington debacle I said something much different), but the way they did it was certainly shocking. Playoffs or no playoffs, that was one of the more enjoyable games in Eagles' history. The Cowboys, with eight days of rest and a playoff spot on the line, flat-out choked like the frauds they are. Of course the Eagles had something to do with that, particularly the defense that is playing as well as any in football right now. It doesn't get much sweeter than demolishing the Cowboys, especially given the bonus of sending them home for the postseason. I'm glad Reid finally discovered that Buckhalter is still on this team. He and Westbrook would make a formidable tandem if Reid would just use them. I hope he has finally gotten the message that you have to run to win, but how many times have I said that in the past? I won't hold my breath that he's suddenly a changed man, but we can at least hope that he'll continue the trend for the playoffs.

The Eagles have been largely representative of this year's NFL as a whole. One game they look unbeatable, the next they look like they can't get out of their own way. Thankfully, against the Cowboys, we got the former. Now the question becomes which Eagles team we'll see in the playoffs. When they play like they did against Washington, they are capable of losing to anyone, but when they play like they did yesterday, they are capable of beating anyone. And really, does anybody in the NFC playoffs scare you? If the Eagles can get on a roll with the way the defense is playing, they have just as legitimate of a shot as anyone. The Giants proved last year that if you get hot at the right time, it doesn't matter how many road games you have to play.

As for the game itself: Minnesota is a very beatable team. Defensively, the Eagles just need to stack the line and force Jackson to beat them through the air. Peterson is a monster, but the Eagles did a good job of stuffing him last year, and I have faith in Johnson to come up with an effective scheme for containing him once again. On offense, they may have to throw more than we want them to because Minnesota is so good against the run, but it would be a mistake to abandon the running game altogether, so please, Andy, learn from your past mistakes for a change!

My prediction: I just don't see Minnesota being able to put that many points on the board against the Eagles' defense, and I think McNabb and the offense will do just enough to pull this one out, even if Reid goes brain dead and throws 80% of the time again. Experience wins out in this one: Eagles 20, Vikings 10.

A Win and A Loss in Pittsburgh and E-A-G-L-E-S!

It's been an interesting day for Pennsylvania football, hasn't it?

Western PA

The Steelers pounded division rival Cleveland 31-0, which normally would be greeted with cheers all along the Monongahela, Ohio and Allegheny Rivers - otherwise known as "the confluence" by Al "I talk (a lot), therefore I am...annoying" Michaels.

However, I, for one, was a bit upset seeing our star quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, carted off the field on a stretcher. He suffered a concussion in the second quarter, but is expected to be okay for the Steelers playoff run. Pittsburgh had already clinched a playoff spot and their seeding was set, so it was, essentially, a meaningless game.

I will not question Mike Tomlin's decision to have Roethlisberger in there in the first place. All Tomlin has done in his first two seasons is ring up a 22-10 regular season record and two division titles. He's earned the right to do what he thinks is right in guiding my beloved football team. I will admit my first thought when hearing about Ben was "Why is he even in the game?" - but I'll let it go. And Mike, please keep up the good work!

The Steelers won, so all is well. Now, time to focus on the playoffs. Congrats, Black & Gold! And get well soon, Big Ben. We need ya!

Eastern PA

And in a glorious and surprising fashion, the Eagles pasted the Cowboys 44-6, and, in the process, shined a dubious light on the team and, fairly or unfairly, Tony Romo. With near endless references to their December record, the 'Choker' label they were trying desperately to shake is back in Dallas along with the 10-gallon question of "What happened?"

Nobody asked me, but I'll tell you what I think happened. Jerry Jones, in a very New York Yankee style, lined up all the talented players he could find without bothering with the detail of whether or not they could properly function as a team.

Romo takes it on the chin again - and maybe it's true that he buckles under end-of-season pressure. But he's not the whole problem for that team. Terrell Owens drops passes. The offensive line surrendered near-constant pressure. And the defense and special teams couldn't get out of their own way.

Add it up, and you get a team rife with talent settling down for a long, cold winter. Questions about Wade Phillips and his future are resurrected, ignoring the fact that Jerry Jones is the one who deserves to be sacked. He assembled this bunch of misfits, and he's the king misfit.

I rarely feel sorry for Dallas fans, but in this case, I do. A little, anyway. I don't see any positive changes coming for that team. They can fire Phillips, but that won't solve the problems.

All of this downplays the excellent performance by the Eagles. The offense scored three touchdowns, and the defense answered with two of their own. The Eagles outscored the Cowboys 41-0 over the second and third quarter.

While I think that people went a bit over the top with talk of the NFC East being the most competitive/toughest division in the NFL, I think there is no question that the second best team in that division won today.

If that was Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb's last game in Eagles green, then they served their fans well. As with the Cowboys, the departure of the coach will not solve the problems that still exist in Philadelphia. And the Eagles without McNabb? Wow. Better prepare for some low-scoring games in Philly in 2009.

Thanks for that finale, Eagles. I am one of the many fans that love to see the Cowboys lose. Now everyone is 0-0. Let the fun begin!

Half A Yard Short: A Microcosm for the Whole Season

First, let's face facts: the Eagles season ended in Washington. They're not going to the playoffs. Tampa Bay is not going to miraculously lose at home to the hapless Raiders. And even if the unthinkable happens and Tampa loses, the Eagles still need either Minnesota or Chicago to lose. And even if the miracle of all Christmas miracles happens and both of those scenarios come to pass, the Eagles still must beat the Cowboys—and after watching that pathetic effort against a bad Washington team, does anyone believe that is going to happen?

The Eagles were already given the opportunity to control their own destiny when Tampa lost to San Diego—and they flat-out blew it. They came up smaller than small when everything was on the line. The game itself isn't even worth writing about, so I won't rehash what happened, other than to marvel at Reid's undying stubbornness in throwing the ball 80% of the time on a blustery, windy day while giving Westbrook all of ten meaningful carries. This blurb from Phil Sheridan's article says it all:

"Take away the two junk runs at the end of the first half and the Eagles called just 12 runs while attempting 48 passes (not counting two McNabb spikes). That's an 80/20 split, if you're interested in percentages. That's just stupid, if you're interested in adjective."

I've outlined in several previous blog entries why Reid should be fired, so no need to go there again. This season has convinced me more than ever that Reid's past success was due primarily to Jim Johnson's defense and Donovan McNabb's talent. Now that McNabb, several years and major injuries later, is no longer capable of winning games by himself, Reid's shortcomings have been laid bare. I don't know how many more times he has to miss the playoffs, how many more times his team has to fail to show up in big games, before Lurie will finally pull the trigger.

If I thought there was any chance Reid would be fired, I would strongly consider rooting for them to lose this week. But as it is, we should savor what could well be McNabb's final game as an Eagle. The greatest quarterback in franchise history will no doubt be made the scapegoat this offseason—not the receivers who perpetually lead the league in drops, and certainly not the coach who thinks a running game is some movie starring Arnold Schwarzenegger. If nothing else, the Eagles have the opportunity to drag the stinkin' Cowboys down with them into playoff oblivion, and that would at least be some small consolation.

Eagles Still on the Outside Looking In

Last week the Eagles pummeled the Browns into submission, but their third consecutive win still wasn't enough to get them back to the inside track of the playoff hunt, thanks to Tampa Bay, whose loss to Atlanta just closed the window of opportunity a little more. The Eagles now must hope that either Atlanta loses to Minnesota or Tampa Bay loses to San Diego, because both teams have very easy games next week.

Things haven't changed for the Birds—they still must run the table to have any shot at the playoffs, and to do so, they must play better than they did last week. Even though they blew out the Browns, it was a very sloppy game (they probably should have won by 40 points against a Browns that barely even showed up). Nevertheless, the Eagles should beat a slumping Redskins team, which (if things fall right) would have them battling Dallas in the last game of the season for that final playoff spot—and nothing would be sweeter than securing a playoff spot by sending the 'Boys packing.

But for this weekend at least, the Philly faithful will be huge San Diego and Minnesota fans, because if Atlanta and Tampa both win, the season is probably over.

Play-Action, Anyone? And Other Football Observations

Please...Pass The Ball!

What's the deal with teams not being able to convert 3rd-and-1? Or worse yet, 4th-and-1. I am thinking of the Steelers and Eagles - and now the Colts - as I wonder about this. Why not try that new-fangled pass thing? I am hardly a football tactician, but I can see that this might be something worth a shot. Just sayin'...

There was the Eagles-Bears game when the Eagles turned the ball over on downs after a failed 4th-and-1 (on the Bears 1 yard line) against the Bears. This after two failed run attempts for the same yard prior to that.

Then the Eagles did it again against the Redskins. After getting nothing on a 2nd-and-1 run on the Redskins two yard line, they lost three yards on another run, then kicked the field goal.

The Steelers didn't want to be left out, and they were stopped inside the Dallas five yard line on fourth down - again on a failed run attempt.

At least the Steelers managed to win the game, but the fact remains that running for it when a yard is needed is no longer a gimme. Not that it ever was, but it seems that this one yard is harder to get than ever in 2008.

Now the Colts have joined this dubious fraternity, failing on 3rd-and-1 from nine yards out against Jacksonville.

And more from Jacksonville: Do broadcasters even listen to one another? Seconds before Adam Vinateri missed a 30-yard field goal, Cris Collinsworth's booth partner said that Vinateri was lining up for an extra point try. Nothing from Collinsworth.

That WAS a touchdown

The league has backed the officials who called Santonio Holmes 4-yard catch a score. Steelers win, time to move on. It's too bad it had to be a close call and slightly mar an otherwise great win for the Steelers, but that's the way it goes sometimes.

I sure hope the Ravens don't make the playoffs. I'd rather the Steelers not have to face the Ravens a third time. Two wins is pretty sweet, but three....that's tough. But they did it before, beating the Bill Belichik-coached Browns three times in 1993, so anything can happen. The way they're playing, I think the Steelers can beat anyone right now.

It sure would be fun to beat the Ravens a third time. But first the Ravens will have their hands full this weekend with the surging Cowboys. That should be a fun game, and I am not sure who I am rooting for. Can both teams be credited with a loss?

Eagles Manhandle Giants

It's late to be posting this so I won't write much, but I couldn't let the week go without celebrating a victory over that hated team from North Jersey. The Eagles dominated the game from start to finish; the Giants' offense didn't so squat until garbage time. I hope Reid took some notes. This is what happens when you don't abandon the running game and you keep pounding it in there: you wear the opposing defense down and dominate in the second half, though we probably have Mornhinweg to thank more than Reid since he was clearly calling the plays again.

It's great to see them playing this well now, but I still fear it may be too little, too late. You can't help but wonder where the team would be if Reid hadn't gone brain dead and pulled McNabb against the Ravens. Oh well, at least they control their own destiny within the division now (thanks to the Cowboys' meltdown against the Steelers). If the Eagles run the table, they will finish second in the division. However, that still may not be good enough to reach the playoffs because they still need Atlanta to lose one more time, though that could happen as early as this week against Tampa Bay.

Bottom Line: the Eagles are in much better shape than they were two weeks ago, but they still need a little help and obviously have zero margin for error.